The Shadow Alliance: What’s Behind Pakistan-Saudi-Turkiye’s Defence Pact?

The defence pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan has sparked concerns about a potential shift in regional dynamics. This agreement, while shrouded in secrecy, has significant implications for the established order in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

At its core, the pact is reminiscent of NATO’s Article 5, with signatories pledging to treat an attack on one country as an attack on all. This provision has sparked concerns about a new security realignment in the region that could leave Washington with fewer levers to pull.

The timing of this agreement is noteworthy, coming amidst the ongoing US-Israeli conflict against Iran and Israel’s aggressive military actions in the region. Some observers have linked the deal to growing wariness towards an unpredictable US government, potentially presaging a wider security realignment that could transform the Middle East.

Not all experts agree on the significance of this development. Sina Toosi, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, argues that the pact is unlikely to be a major setback for US goals in the region. According to Toosi, the agreement is more about greater strategic autonomy among Muslim powers than a rejection of Washington’s designs.

The push for regional cooperation with Israel has been a linchpin of the Trump administration’s plans for the Middle East. However, this new alliance could pose a significant challenge to Arab-Israeli normalisation under the Abraham Accords. As Toosi noted, “one of the first major post-war developments is the emergence of a defence initiative among three major Muslim powers seeking greater strategic autonomy.”

The agreement builds on a previous mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, reached just days after Israel launched an air strike on Doha in September 2025. This agreement came amidst growing concerns about Washington’s ability to control one of its closest allies.

Despite assurances that the pact is not a regional re-orientation, some observers have connected it to the Trump administration’s at-times caustic approach towards NATO and its wider pivot away from multilateralism. They argue that it represents a clear, if nascent, weakening of Washington’s strategic sway in the region.

The US approach to the Gulf has largely been based on forging military, economic, and diplomatic ties with regional states. In turn, these states have expected de facto security guarantees. This strategy was energised in the early 1980s upon the founding of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and it grew amid the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan.

The question remains, what does this mean for the future of Middle Eastern geopolitics? As Harlan Ullman, chairman of the Killowen Group advisory firm, noted, “the basis for our alliance in the Middle East…has been shaken.” The implications for Washington’s posture and messaging in the region are significant, and it remains to be seen how this new alliance will shape the future of regional dynamics.